Prediction Markets: Casinos or Truth Engines?
— A common defense of prediction markets goes something like this: trading is zero-sum, so there is no social cost. Money just moves from wrong people to right...
Blog
Short essays on prediction markets, information economics, and market microstructure. Rigorous but (hopefully) readable.
Can Prediction Markets Be Truly Decentralized?
— Polymarket bills itself as a decentralized prediction market. Trades settle on-chain, contracts are non-custodial, and resolution is handled by UMA, a “decen...
Prediction Market Prices Aren't Probabilities
— Prediction markets are everywhere now. Polymarket shows “Trump 62%,” experts cite it as the wisdom of crowds, and everyone treats these numbers as probabilit...