The Game Theory of Extraction Shooters
— I have been playing a lot of ARC Raiders in my spare time. It is an extraction shooter, a genre where you load into a map, gather loot, fight AI enemies, run...
Blog
Short essays on prediction markets, information economics, and market microstructure. Rigorous but (hopefully) readable.
Lottery-Linked Debt Is a Bad Deal
— A new category of fintech product has emerged: lottery-linked debt overlays. The pitch is simple. You have credit card debt. You pay a monthly fee proportion...
Free Information Increases Inequality
— There is a natural intuition that making information cheaper should level the playing field. If everyone has access to the same polls, the same news, the sam...
Prediction Markets: Casinos or Truth Engines?
— A common defense of prediction markets goes something like this: trading is zero-sum, so there is no social cost. Money just moves from wrong people to right...
Can Prediction Markets Be Truly Decentralized?
— Polymarket bills itself as a decentralized prediction market. Trades settle on-chain, contracts are non-custodial, and resolution is handled by UMA, a “decen...
Prediction Market Prices Aren't Probabilities
— Prediction markets are everywhere now. Polymarket shows “Trump 62%,” experts cite it as the wisdom of crowds, and everyone treats these numbers as probabilit...